منابع مشابه
Heritability of Overconfidence
Empirical evidence suggests that people on average overestimate their own ability in a variety of circumstances. Little is known, however, about the origins of such overconfidence. To shed some light on this issue, we use the classic twin design to estimate the genetic and environmental contributions to individual differences in overconfidence. We collect data on overconfidence among 460 twin p...
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We study three distinct measures of overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one’s performance, (2) overplacement of one’s performance relative to others, and (3) overprecision in one’s belief about private signals. We show how a simple Bayesian model with uncertainty about task difficulty predicts overplacement and underestimation after unexpectedly easy tasks and underplacement and overestimatio...
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A Model of Overconfidence People use information about their ability to choose tasks. If more challenging tasks provide more accurate information about ability, people who care about and who are risk averse over their perception of their own ability will choose tasks that are not sufficiently challenging. Overestimation of ability raises utility by deluding people into believing that they are m...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of the European Economic Association
سال: 2009
ISSN: 1542-4766,1542-4774
DOI: 10.1162/jeea.2009.7.2-3.617